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      1 # The Sustainability of YouTube
      2 
      3 ## Date: 2025/9/28
      4 
      5 ## Context
      6 
      7 I dislike using cloud services because they may discontinue my service or they may do something stupid that negatively impacts me. These concerns, along with concerns about privacy, have led me to keep information and content I care about away from cloud services. This does make me wonder, how many people would be distraught about the loss of their content if YouTube terminated their accounts? This is not the topic today, nor is it something I can easily answer, but it is something I wonder about and would like others to consider.
      8 
      9 => https://killedbygoogle.com/ Killed By Google
     10 => https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/05/google-cloud-accidentally-nukes-customer-account-causes-two-weeks-of-downtime/ Google Deletes Pension Fund
     11 => https://www.gnu.org/proprietary/proprietary-surveillance.html Proprietary Surveillance
     12 
     13 Similarly, I am skeptical of "free" services. It's incorrect to say "if something is free, you are the product" because charity does exist, but when it comes to Google, they aren't a charity. Their current model with YouTube is to have people upload videos to their site and show ads to some users when they watch said videos. There are also paid subscriptions, but their primary monetization comes from ads. An important point is they don't purge content on a regular basis, except in cases of ToS violations. As such, there is a (nearly) monotonically increasing function that describes the storage requirements of YouTube. This motivates my question below.
     14 
     15 ## Question
     16 
     17 When will YouTube's storage costs exceed their revenue if they don't start purging old content, assuming their revenue does not increase over time?
     18 
     19 ## How to Answer This Question
     20 
     21 We need the following information to answer this question:
     22 
     23 - What is YouTube's annual net profit?
     24 - How much data does YouTube store?
     25 - How much does data storage cost?
     26 
     27 ## YouTube's Profit
     28 
     29 According to Alphabet's 2025 Q2 earnings release, YouTube ads made a revenue of $9.769 billion. Annualized, this is $39.076 billion, but this is only revenue, not net profit. If we assume the operating margin across Alphabet matches the operating margin of YouTube (32%), we find an approximate net profit of $12.50432 billion / year. Actual net profit could differ from this, but since we are concerned with how much data storage this could support, we don't need to factor in how this would be taxed.
     30 
     31 => https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204425000056/googexhibit991q22025.htm Alphabet Earnings
     32 
     33 ## Storage Needs
     34 
     35 ### Total Videos
     36 
     37 YouTube states on their official blog there are over 20 million videos uploaded per day. While I don't trust YouTube very much, and they don't have many incentives to be honest on this topic, they seem more trustworthy in this context than the slop factory sites as they are, in fact, the ones who are hosting the content. As such, I will accept this metric.
     38 
     39 => https://web.archive.org/web/20250911091711/https://blog.youtube/press/ YouTube Blog Post
     40 
     41 ### Average Video Size
     42 
     43 I wrote a python script that uses a curated list of popular Google Trends searches over the past few decades to search YouTube for recently uploaded videos. I ran this script and compiled a list of ~7.65 million YouTube videos.
     44 
     45 => https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/dhruvildave/google-trends-dataset Search Trends Dataset
     46 
     47 Before continuing, I will list a few limitations of this approach:
     48 
     49 - YouTube likely imposes some amount of algorithmic filtering when sorting by 'recently uploaded'
     50 - The videos in question are all public (not inclusive of private/unlisted videos)
     51 - Less popular search terms may have a different distribution of video sizes
     52 
     53 These are the main flaws in my methodology, but any approach will be imperfect without being able to get the data directly from YouTube.
     54 
     55 Of these 7.65 million videos, I sampled 615,222 of them and queried YouTube using `yt-dlp` to find all video resolutions and formats YouTube will serve.
     56 
     57 => https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp YT-DLP
     58 
     59 
     60 It seems unlikely to me that YouTube stores each of these resolutions on their servers, but I think it is very likely that YouTube is storing the highest resolution version they are willing to serve to users.
     61 
     62 Based on my findings, I propose a lower bound of ~396.17 MB / video, which assumes they are only storing the highest resolution version and all other versions are generated in real time via transcoding (I am confident this isn't the case, but it provides a nice lower bound). I also propose an upper bound of ~1.44 GB / video, which assumes they are storing every resolution and format for each video they are serving.
     63 
     64 All of the code used for this is available on my git server.
     65 
     66 => http://git.laack.co/blog/log.html Code
     67 
     68 ### Annual Storage Increase
     69 
     70 Using my findings above about video size and YouTube's stated video upload rate, we find:
     71 
     72 Lower bound:
     73 
     74 - 7.923 PB / Day
     75 - 2.89 EB / Year
     76 
     77 Upper bound:
     78 
     79 - 28.895 PB / Day
     80 - 10.547 EB / Year
     81 
     82 Note: These values may vary depending on rounding, but they should be similar to what anyone else would find.
     83 
     84 ## Storage Cost by Volume
     85 
     86 GCP currently charges $26 / month for 1 TB of standard multi-region, US based, cloud storage. If we assume the same 32% profit margin as before, this would cost ~$17.68 / TB / month or $212.16 / TB / year. I don't know if this is high or low relative to what they actually pay. YouTube requires quick access to many of their videos, but many of their videos are likely retrieved infrequently. Additionally, it seems likely Alphabet's cloud storage margins are higher than the average margins across the organization. Additionally, these are only US storage prices so this could vary depending on the regions this data is being hosted in. In any case, I think this is a fair estimate.
     87 
     88 => https://cloud.google.com/storage/pricing#multi-regions GCP Pricing
     89 
     90 ## Answer to the Question
     91 
     92 Given YouTube's approximated net profit of $12.50432 billion / year and an estimated cost of $212.16 / TB / year for cloud storage, we find their profits can support an additional ~58.94 EB of data.
     93 
     94 At the lower bound of 2.89 EB / year we find YouTube's storage costs will surpass their current profits in ~20.39 years.
     95 
     96 If we assume our upper bound of 10.547 EB / year we find YouTube's storage costs will surpass their current profits in ~5.59 years. 
     97 
     98 ## Conclusion
     99 
    100 These are very rough bounds, especially given how difficult it is to estimate the cost per TB / year for storage of this data given their retrieval needs, but we find that in ~5.59 - ~20.39 years, YouTube will be forced to start purging old content to remain profitable at their current profit rate.